Our timely perspectives on key global economic forces and the long-term investment strategies to consider, highlighted by the Monthly Market Monitor.
Tired of being scared yet?
Richard Bernstein, November 2014
Bull markets are based on climbing the proverbial “wall of worry,” and this cycle has been no different.
It's time for your portfolio to break from tradition
Kathleen Gaffney and Kevin Dachille, November 2014
Given the current low-yield environment and with rising interest rates looming, now may be the right time to consider new strategies for generating favorable returns in your fixed-income portfolio.
Confronting the tax drag
Tom Metzold, Jim Evans, Lew Piantedosi, Peter Crowley; November 2014
The 2014 tax season brought home the unwelcome reality of higher taxes, particularly for high-income earners. The impact of higher taxes on their investment returns can be substantial now and in the years ahead. Left unchecked, taxes can consume a quarter or more of every dollar earned by the average investor.
Is your portfolio truly diversified?
Eric Stein, CFA; November 2014
In this Insight, Eric Stein, co-director of Eaton Vance Global Income Group, discusses the potential benefits of absolute return strategies, what they invest in and the role they can play in investor portfolios.
What the U.S. midterm elections mean for municipal bond investors
Municipal Insight Committee, November 2014
In this timely Insight, we focus on five states where the outcome of the elections may impact state credit quality – positively and negatively – in the near future.
A Republican Congress Awaits – But First the Lame Duck Session
Andrew H. Friedman, November 2014
In this timely Insight, Andy Friedman details how the House and Senate chambers might view compromise differently and the unfinished business that awaits them next month.
Three reasons why commodity-related debt may hold value under pressure
Kathleen Gaffney, November 2014
In this timely Insight, Kathleen Gaffney discusses how a flexible multisector bond strategy can be a great way to gain exposure to, and take advantage of, potential value opportunities in hard-hit commodity related debt.
The importance of country allocation: Developed vs. emerging markets
Tim Atwill and Greg Johnsen, October 2014
Parametric Emerging Markets: Evolution of the sector weighting process
The Big Dig economy: another fine mess
Thomas Shively, October 2014
The following Insight, drafted prior to the recent spike in market volatility, is an update on Thomas Shively's cautious view of the economic backdrop here and abroad.
Hexavest viewpoint: negative on the eurozone
Marc Christopher Lavoie, October 2014
Management by the dots signals tightening cycle
Payson Swaffield, October 2014
This October marks a milestone for the credit markets, the end of Quantitative Easing. As the Federal Reserve’s focus shifts to more traditional monetary policy, they’re using a new “dots” chart format.
Tobacco bonds’ appeal may be smoke and mirrors
Tom Metzold, Cindy Clemson, and Leanne Parziale; October 2014
Despite attractive returns, tobacco bonds may be too risky for many investors. In this Insight, we compare these bonds with traditional municipal bonds and pinpoint what matters most now for investors in this sector.
The appeal of high-yield munis may increase
Cynthia Clemson and Thomas Metzold, October 2014
Higher taxes are a rude awakening for many investors. For high earners especially, the tax rates on investment income have risen substantially. Increased taxes, combined with historically low yields and the prospect of higher interest rates, now pose a triple threat.
Richard Bernstein, October 2014
After a relatively quiet summer, broad financial market volatility has resurfaced and investors are wondering what to do.
Is “smart beta” smart enough?
Richard Bernstein, October 2014
Investors have become fascinated with so-called “smart beta1” strategies. These strategies can be interesting, but they are hardly a panacea that will solve all investors’ problems. The term “smart beta” is somewhat new, but the strategies have existed for decades with relatively mixed performance.
1Beta is a measure of risk that shows a fund or strategies volatility relative to that fund’s stated benchmark. A fund or strategy with a beta of 1 performed exactly like the market index; a beta less than 1 means its performance was less volatile than the index, positive or negative. Smart beta may also be known as advanced beta, alternative, strategic and factor weighted beta.
How’s the market feeling these days?
Edward J. Perkin, October 2014
As of September 30, 2014, the S&P 500 was up more than 200% from its bear market low on March 9, 2009 – marking one of the longest bull runs since 1930. Meanwhile, volatility (muted for most of this year) has picked up recently.
Are you managing volatility?...or is it managing you?
Tim Atwill, Richard Bernstein, Eric Stein, Chris Sunderland, Brad Godfrey; September 2014
Research shows investors’ personal returns fall short of the equity markets’ actual returns because investors too often make the mistake of buying high and selling low. But there are several strategies investors and their advisors can draw on to take a more disciplined approach to investing.
Are munis the cure for yield-starved investors?
Richard Bernstein, September 2014
Today, many volatility-wary, yield-starved investors fear that rising interest rates will devastate their income portfolios and wonder which asset class may be best to navigate this market and address the challenges they face.
Corporate inversions: a primer
Andrew H. Friedman, September 2014
Read this quick primer, see why there’s spirited debate about tax inversion in the U.S. and what it all means to you.
A way to address higher taxes and rising rates
Craig Brandon and Adam Weigold, September 2014
One of the top challenges for yield-starved, tax burdened investors today is finding attractive, tax-efficient short-term income opportunities while being mindful of higher taxes. For investors comfortable with the risks involved, municipal floating-rate notes (FRNs) may be a suitable choice to help address these needs — and more.
Dynamic markets call for flexible strategies
Richard Bernstein and Kathleen Gaffney, September 2014
Historically low yields, recurring market volatility and other challenges have increasingly enhanced the appeal of investment strategies that take a more flexible approach to investing.
Is style box investing holding you back?
Richard Bernstein and Kathleen Gaffney, September 2014
In today’s market environment, tethering your portfolio to a style box or a benchmark could potentially lead to volatile investment returns when those asset classes or investment styles fall out of favor. Consider taking a flexible approach, which looks at the entire spectrum of equity and fixed income assets, to widen your opportunity set and further diversify your portfolio.
Inclusion of Chinese A-shares in MSCI Indexes: Our perspective
Timothy Atwill and Thomas Hardy; August 2014
Four reasons to consider a trust to protect your assets
Andrew Friedman, August 2014
For many years, trusts have been the province of the wealthy — mysterious vehicles used to escape taxes and preserve assets for future generations. And for couples with joint assets approaching or exceeding $10.68 million (the current gift and estate tax exemption amount), a comprehensive estate plan that incorporates trusts is crucial for minimizing estate taxes.
Toward the sounds of chaos
Richard Bernstein, August 2014
Investors continue to react to volatility by making emotion-driven decisions that take them out of the market and put their long-term financial goals at risk.
Don’t ignore higher taxes until Tax Day
Municipal Insight Committee, August 2014
During the 2013 tax season, many investors in higher tax brackets were rudely awakened to the reality of paying 50% of their income in federal and state taxes. Given the new tax landscape, the federal tax advantage income municipal bonds provide may look more appealing than ever.
Assessing whether Washington is ready to tackle tax reform
Andrew Friedman, July 2014
Everyone wants a simpler tax code and lower tax rates. But getting Democrats and Republicans to agree on the path to reform seems impossible. Circumstances – like the loss of U.S. jobs because of high corporate taxes – may eventually demand Congressional action.
Lack of corporate hubris means elongated cycle
Richard Bernstein, July 2014
Despite the general consensus that a bear market is on the horizon, we do not think investors or corporations are yet setting the stage for an end to this bull market and the start of the next economic recession.
Floating-rate loans are not just a rate hedge
Scott Page, Craig Russ, Christopher Remington; July 2014
The prospect of higher interest rates has many advisors and investors considering floating-rate loans. Because loans’ coupons regularly reset, these debt instruments can maintain their value even as rates rise. But the characteristics of loans, as well as their performance track record, suggest they may deserve a place in strategically allocated portfolios in any interest-rate climate.
Earn equity-like returns without equity-like risk
Michael Weilheimer, Steve Concannon, Will Reardon; July 2014
High-yield bonds offer investors the potential to earn total returns comparable with equities without the level of volatility stocks have. While many income investors are naturally concerned about the prospects of higher interest rates, high-yield bonds have a set of characteristics that may enable them to maintain their value even as rates rise.
An allocation to currencies may provide income and lower an overall portfolio’s volatility
Michael Cirami, Eric Stein, John Baur, Matthew Murphy, Bradford Godfrey; July 2014
Most investors understand the benefits of diversification and the risks of owning just one security. But many overlook the benefits of broadening their currency exposure and have all their investments concentrated in the U.S. dollar. Investing in a mix of foreign currencies may lower the risks of an overall portfolio, provide additional sources of income and can potentially enable investors to pursue a wider array of opportunities around the world.
Solving the Income Puzzle
Christopher Remington, Michael Cirami, Kathleen Gaffney, and Scott Page; July 2014
With interest rates at near historic lows, investors are starved for income. Government bonds and high-grade corporates have generally been the core of investors’ income portfolios, but yields on these bonds are minimal. Delivering a potential double whammy for investors, the prospect of rising interest rates could bring principal losses because the prices of bonds in these core sectors are highly sensitive to changes in interest rates. Diversifying into nontraditional income sectors may provide investors with greater income and lessen their exposure to interest-rate risk.
Country Allocation: The Primary Determinant of International Equity Returns
Marshall L. Stocker, June 2014
Macro-economic policy explains country-level equity returns
Marshall L. Stocker, June 2014
Edward Perkin is Eaton Vance’s new Chief Equity Investment Officer
In April 2014, Edward J. Perkin joined Eaton Vance as the firm’s new Chief Equity Investment Officer. He recently sat down for a Q&A to discuss his background, leadership style and vision for the Eaton Vance equity team, as well as his outlook on the stock market.
Assessing the impact of the midterm primaries
Andrew H. Friedman, June 2014
The success of moderate Republicans in Senate primaries increases the possibility that the GOP can win a majority of the seats in the Senate. The defeat of House Majority Leader Eric Cantor by a Tea Party-supported candidate will likely result in the House’s Tea Party members being able to exert much greater influence on positions the House leadership takes.
Hexavest neutral on Japan
Frédéric Imbeault, June 2014
The policies of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe – known as “Abenomics” – succeeded in pushing the country out of recession and deflation. But further economic reforms are still needed, and other key economic and market indicators remain mixed.
Worried about the downside?
Richard Bernstein, May 2014
In most investors’ minds, losing money is the biggest risk they fear. While many still seem unwilling to take on excessive risk with equities, their solution to managing risk seems to be broadening the number of asset classes they own. But looking at correlations, not the number of asset classes in a portfolio, may be the best way to seek protection from the downside risk of equities.
Floating-rate loan core value remains, despite headlines
Scott Page, Craig Russ, and Christopher Remington; May 2014
The bankruptcy of Energy Future Holdings, the company formerly known as TXU, made headlines, as has other seemingly cautionary developments in the floating-rate loan market. But Eaton Vance still believes there are plenty of opportunities in the loan market for cautious investors who do fundamental credit research.
How to tame an aging bull market
Bill Hackney, May 2014
The bull market that began in March 2009 is now 5 years old. We don’t see any signs that it will let up, even though economic growth remains low. With rallies this prolonged, managing risk becomes even more important. Active share, beta and downside capture ratio are three key measures advisors and investors can use to evaluate an asset manager’s ability to capture the opportunities and manage the risks associated with this type of market.
Puerto Rico: what investors should watch for next
Municipal Insight Committee, May 2014
In February, the three major credit ratings agencies (S&P, Moody’s and Fitch) downgraded Puerto Rico’s general obligation (GO) rating to below investment grade, primarily citing the territory’s difficulty in accessing capital markets, its heavy debt load and a continued decline in its economy.
Muni bonds’ appeal likely to be evident in 2014
Municipal Insight Committee, April 2014
2013 proved to be a difficult year for the municipal bond market with a few, high-profile negative news stories and fears that Fed actions could lead to higher interest rates. But 2014 offers a more promising scenario. Higher tax rates, in particular, are likely to cause more investors to realize the appeal of investing in tax-advantaged bonds.
A Classic Barometer
Richard Bernstein, April 2014
With the yield curve in the United States still steep by historical standards, there should be ample liquidity in the economy to fuel further growth. Generally yield curves in emerging markets, however, are either flat or inverted, a situation that could create liquidity issues and curb economic and profit growth in these markets.
Investing in the Wake of the “Great Moderation:” Floating-Rate Loans as a Strategic Allocation
Scott Page, Craig Russ, Christopher Remington; April 2014
Floating-rate loans deserve consideration as a strategic portfolio position today because they may help:
- Boost income in a low, flat-rate environment with yield potential that’s competitive with or greater than many longer-duration fixed-income investments.
- Protect fixed-income portfolios against a potential rising-rate scenario and the erosion of fixed-income values that would result.
- Reduce portfolio risk with historically near-zero duration and low correlation with other fixed-income sectors.
Have you looked at India lately?
Eric Stein, Patrick Campbell; March 2014
In our judgment, it’s time to remove India from the ranks of the so-called “Fragile Five” emerging-market countries. We believe the strong investment case to be made for India today underscores the importance of taking a country-by-country approach to emerging-market investing.
The Midterm Elections (And a Peek Toward 2016)
Andrew H. Friedman, March 2014
With fiscal deadlines out of the way for 2014, attention is now turning toward the 2014 midterm elections. This white paper covers a variety of Washington political matters: the reason for rampant partisanship in Washington and what it means going forward, what is likely to happen in the midterm elections and a glimpse toward the presidential election of 2016.
Eaton Vance Viewpoints: Timothy Atwill on “Systematic Alpha” Investing
Timothy Atwill, March 2014
Timothy Atwill, CFA, Ph.D., Director – Research and Strategy for Parametric, discusses Parametric’s innovative investment approach — known as “systematic alpha” — and its application to emerging-market investing.
The American Industrial Renaissance Revisited
Richard Bernstein, Q1 2014
It remains unlikely that the United States will be the manufacturing powerhouse that it was during the 1950s and 1960s, but many factors are suggesting that the U.S. industrial sector will continue to gain market share.
Consider paying a premium for municipal bonds: Focus on yield to worst rather than a municipal bond’s price
Municipal Insight Committee, March 2014
- The price of a premium municipal bond should not be the sole determinant of value
- Yield to worst is a meaningful metric to help determine the value and risk of a premium municipal bond
- In rising rate environments, higher cash flows from a premium municipal bond may help to protect purchasing power
Market Share: The next secular investment theme
Richard Bernstein, Q1 2014
A myopic focus on profit margins may miss an important investment consideration. Whereas most investors remain fearful of margin compression, we prefer to search for an investment theme that could emerge if margins do indeed compress.
Equity Bubble? No.
Richard Bernstein, Q1 2014
A growing contingent of market observers is fearful that the U.S. equity market is in some sort of a bubble. We disagree completely with this notion. A strong market rally that many investors have missed is hardly sufficient grounds for a financial bubble.
Bond investing in a rising rate environment
Kathleen Gaffney, February 2014
After a transitional year like 2013, when a multidecade declining rate environment moved to a rising rate environment, we think it is important for investors to consider a multisector approach to finding value in the bond market. Finding bonds that can appreciate in price regardless of the interest-rate environment is what a multisector strategy generally seeks to accomplish. With interest rates still near historic lows and many bond investors concerned that yields will rise as ultra-accommodative monetary policy by the Federal Reserve (the Fed) comes to an end, we believe it makes sense to hunt for good relative values across a broad range of asset classes, particularly in nontraditional places.
Important dates to watch in 2014
Andrew H. Friedman, January 2014
Looking forward into 2014, four dates – February 7, March 31, April 15 and November 4 – stand out as pivot points for events that could affect the markets, particular industries, and tax and financial planning.
New Year, Same Higher Taxes
Investors may be cheering a strong year of stock gains in 2013, but a rude surprise may be right around the corner. For 2013, the combined effect of several tax increases (capital gains, health care and reinstated limitations) will increase the tax burden on many investors by nearly 60%. These higher tax rates will remain in effect for 2014, so mitigating the tax drag on investment returns will continue to be a top priority for investors. We begin our look at what taxpayers can expect with a summary of the new 2013 tax rates.
Key Investment Themes for 2014
Richard Bernstein, January 2014
Richard Bernstein annually publishes a list of investment themes that he believes are critical for the coming year.
Is your inflation protection really protecting you?
Thomas Luster, Stewart Taylor, Kevin Dachille, December 2013
Many investors who own Treasury Inflation-Protection Securities (TIPS) and TIPS mutual funds don’t realize that they may be taking a significant amount of interest-rate risk in exchange for their inflation protection, which may result in losses when rates begin to rise rapidly. Investors may consider an inflation-protection investment strategy that avoids longer-term TIPS and seeks real returns through a strategy of using shorter-maturity TIPS and other shorter-duration assets, like floating-rate loans.
Size is a Key Potential Advantage in the Municipal Bond Market
Ralph Studley, October 2013
Individual investors and financial advisors who seek to assemble a municipal bond portfolio on their own are required to navigate a highly fragmented market and assess a myriad of macroeconomic and fundamental factors. But finding the right security is only half the battle. Although independent credit research is a vital component of the selection process, it doesn’t guarantee that an investor will trade a municipal bond at the best possible price.